The domestic equity market benchmarks, Sensex and Nifty 50, closed marginally higher on Friday, trimming most of their intraday gains as investors resorted to profit booking at higher levels. Optimism over a potential India-US trade deal, record April GST collections, and steady foreign fund inflows was offset by rising geopolitical concerns between India and Pakistan.
The BSE Sensex ended 259.75 points (0.32%) higher at 80,501.99, after surging as much as 935.69 points to an intraday high of 81,177.93. The NSE Nifty 50 closed just 12.50 points (0.05%) up at 24,346.70, amid high volatility.
While positive global cues lent support, domestic caution due to geopolitical tensions capped further gains.
Market Outlook – Dharmesh Shah, Vice President, ICICI Securities:
Market Trend:
Equity benchmarks saw a muted week, closing with marginal gains amid stock-specific action. The Nifty faced strong resistance at 24,500, indicating profit-booking at higher levels. However, it still outperformed broader indices, gaining 1.2%. The Infra and Realty sectors led the gains, rising 2.3% and 2.6% respectively.
Technical View:
The Nifty formed a small bullish candle with a long upper shadow, indicating ongoing consolidation. However, the formation of higher highs and higher lows reflects an intact broader uptrend. The Nifty 50/Midcap ratio chart also suggests continued Nifty outperformance.
Next Week Expectations:
Expect elevated volatility due to geopolitical concerns. Nifty is likely to trade in the 23,500–24,500 range. A close above 24,500 could trigger a move toward 25,000. Key support lies at 23,500–23,800; resistance remains at 24,500.
Investor Strategy:
Despite possible short-term reactions to geopolitical tensions, investors are advised not to panic and instead build quality portfolios for the medium to long term.
Historical Trend in May:
The old adage “sell in May and go away” doesn’t hold here—Nifty has delivered positive returns in 9 of the last 12 Mays (2013–2024), averaging 2.1% gains. Any dips should be viewed as buying opportunities.
Tailwinds to Watch:
Progress on the India–US trade deal
Continued FII inflows
Strengthening of the rupee
Falling Brent crude oil prices
Stock to Buy: Sun Pharmaceutical Industries
Buy Range: ₹1,780 – ₹1,833
Target Price: ₹2,040
Stop Loss: ₹1,687
Recommendation by Dharmesh Shah, VP, ICICI Securities, for short-term gains.
